About FightVex

FightVex is a website that uses AI to predict UFC fights — and shows its work.Pick any two fighters and our engine, "Vex AI," plays out the fight thousands of times to estimate who is likely to win, how (knockout, submission or decision), and in which round — then explains why, in numbers you can check.

Think of it as a transparent analyst for combat sports. Most prediction sites just hand you a number and ask you to trust it. We do the opposite: every rating, every data source, and our real accuracy track record are open for you to inspect. On top of the predictions, we offer professional-grade research tools for people who follow the betting markets — but FightVex is not a sportsbook and never takes a wager.

What you can do here

  • Simulate any matchup. The AI Simulator gives a win probability, the likely method and round, a round-by-round breakdown, and the key factors driving it.
  • Explore the fighters. Real records, rankings, bios and per-fight statistics in the fighter library, and a head-to-head compare view.
  • Follow the cards. Upcoming UFC events with the full fight card and Vex AI's read on every bout.
  • Study the market. The Edge Desk shows real moneylines beside our model, a line-movement tracker, and calculators for expected value, closing-line value and bankroll/Kelly staking.
  • Check our honesty. The methodology explains exactly how the model works, and the accuracy record grades our public picks against real results.

How the prediction engine works

Vex AI doesn't let one rating decide a fight. It builds each fighter's profile from real statistics, then runs a style-aware, round-by-round simulation thousands of times — modelling where the fight happens (standing vs the ground), fatigue, accumulated damage and the paths to a finish. Aggregating those runs gives the win probability, the method-of-victory split and the round-by-round picture, always with a confidence range because MMA is genuinely unpredictable.

And it's tested, not just asserted. We back-tested the engine against 10,206 real UFC bouts (drawn from 13,866 fighters, 1993–2026), rebuilding each fighter's stats from only their earlierfights so there's no hindsight. It picks the winner about 65% of the time with well-calibrated probabilities — a realistic figure on a deep, upset-heavy history, not an inflated marketing number. Full details are on the methodology page.

Fighter insight — and a public, verifiable track record

Beyond the win probability, FightVex reads each fighter's style from real data. The simulator names a matchup's archetypes — pressure striker, wrestler, submission grappler, counter-striker — and every fighter page carries a Striking Profilebuilt from thousands of real UFCStats fights: where a fighter's strikes land (head, body, leg) and from where (distance, clinch, ground). It's descriptive insight from real fight data, clearly labelled — and deliberately kept out of the prediction. We tested whether that detail improves who-wins accuracy; it didn't, so we don't pretend it does.

And our picks are locked before the fights. Each card's picks are hashed and timestamped in the Bitcoin blockchain before the event — you can recompute that hash in your own browser to prove they were never back-dated — then graded against the real results on the accuracy record. Our first live card is already on the board.

Real data — and a strict no-make-believe rule

Fighter identities, records, rankings, fight history and the betting odds you see are real data from trusted public sources (such as ESPN, official rankings and live market odds). The onlymodelled numbers on the entire site are the clearly-labelled Vex AI simulations. Where a deeper stat isn't publicly available we transparently estimate it from a fighter's real record and flag it as an estimate — we never dress up a guess as a measured fact. Today FightVex focuses on the UFC.

Plans

You can browse and try a live preview for free. A free account unlocks personalisation, and one Pro plan unlocks everything — unlimited custom simulations, full fighter profiles and all the betting tools (line movement, EV, closing-line value and bankroll/Kelly). Payments are handled by Stripe and you can cancel anytime from your account. See pricing for current details.

What FightVex is NOT

  • Not a sportsbook. We don't take bets or hold your money for wagering. The tools are for research and education.
  • Not betting or financial advice, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Predictions are probabilities — favourites lose all the time.
  • Not affiliated with the UFC, any promotion, or any sportsbook.
  • Not for minors. 21+. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or your local support service.

What we stand for

Transparency (we show our method and our real track record), honesty (no fabricated stats, no invented accuracy claims), responsible play (clear risk framing, never hype), and safety — read exactly how we protect your account and payments on our Security & Trust page.

FightVex provides informational analytics and probabilistic research/entertainment tools. 21+ · Please play responsibly.