Verified · vex-v3.3-corner-symmetric

Vex AI Accuracy Record

The honest version: every Vex AI pick is logged before the fight and graded against the real resultafterward. We never back-date a prediction and we never publish a number we can't verify. This page is that record — live.

Historical backtest

10,206 real UFC bouts, replayed

We rebuilt every bout's inputs from only the fighters' prior fights — no hindsight — across 1993–2026 (13,866 fighters), then ran the live engine and graded it against the real result. This is the model proving itself on history; the section below is the live record on fights it predicts going forward.

64.6%

Winner picks

10,206 bouts replayed

63.5%

Recent 2024–2026

held-out — never tuned on

0.625

Log loss

lower is better · 0.69 = coin flip

0.218

Brier score

lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip

Calibration

When Vex AI said a fighter wins X%, how often they actually won across these bouts. Closer = better.

0.1-0.2

10.9% actual · n=101

0.2-0.3

15.3% actual · n=616

0.3-0.4

31.0% actual · n=1811

0.4-0.5

45.5% actual · n=2202

0.5-0.6

54.5% actual · n=2607

0.6-0.7

68.9% actual · n=1816

0.7-0.8

80.5% actual · n=945

0.8-0.9

91.6% actual · n=107

Bar = actual win rate · tick = predicted. Leakage-free (each fighter's stats use only their earlier fights); scored when both fighters have ≥2 prior fights. See methodology.

₿ Proof of timing

Picks locked before the fights — verify it yourself

Before each card, we hash the exact pick-set and anchor that hash in the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. After the fights you can recompute the hash in your own browser (no trust in us) and confirm it matches the one Bitcoin timestamped beforethe event. We literally cannot back-date — the timestamp is set by Bitcoin's miners, not by us.

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Picks locked Aug 12, 2026, 1:11 PM · fights Sep 5, 2026, 4:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #962154 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Picks locked Aug 5, 2026, 1:55 PM · fights Aug 29, 2026, 7:00 AM

₿ Bitcoin block #961169 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Picks locked Jul 26, 2026, 1:58 PM · fights Aug 22, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #959708 · before the fight ✓

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Picks locked Jul 20, 2026, 1:26 PM · fights Aug 15, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #958897 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

Picks locked Jul 18, 2026, 1:25 PM · fights Aug 8, 2026, 6:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #958558 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Picks locked Jun 28, 2026, 1:50 PM · fights Aug 1, 2026, 3:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #955815 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.

Picks locked Jun 24, 2026, 1:55 PM · fights Jul 25, 2026, 1:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #955182 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Picks locked Jul 18, 2026, 1:25 PM · fights Jul 25, 2026, 1:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #958558 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Picks locked Jun 21, 2026, 1:22 PM · fights Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #954705 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Oklahoma City

Picks locked Jun 17, 2026, 1:13 PM · fights Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #954100 · before the fight ✓

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Picks locked Jun 21, 2026, 1:22 PM · fights Jul 11, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #954705 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

Picks locked Jun 21, 2026, 1:22 PM · fights Jun 27, 2026, 1:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #954705 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Picks locked Jun 7, 2026, 7:20 PM · fights Jun 20, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #952755 · before the fight ✓

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Picks locked Jun 7, 2026, 7:20 PM · fights Jun 15, 2026, 12:00 AM

₿ Bitcoin block #952755 · before the fight ✓

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Picks locked Jun 6, 2026, 3:49 PM · fights Jun 6, 2026, 9:00 PM

₿ Bitcoin block #952629 · before the fight ✓

62.9%

Winner picks

124 graded fights

41.0%

Method picks

78 verifiable

0.237

Brier score

lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip

0.667

Log loss

lower is better · 0.69 = coin flip

Calibration

When Vex AI says a fighter wins X% of the time, how often do they actually win? Closer rows = better calibrated.

50–60%

60.7% actual · n=56

60–70%

60.4% actual · n=48

70–80%

77.8% actual · n=18

80–90%

50.0% actual · n=2

Bar = actual win rate · tick = predicted. 35 more predictions pending results.