Simulate the Matchup
Tap either fighter to swap in any of the roster. Every panel — win probability, method-of-victory, round breakdown and skill profile — is a transparent Vex AI output computed from real, aggregated fight data.
Winner
Select Fighter
Decision
Win Probability
0%
Select Fighter
0%
Select Fighter
Fighter win range
0% – 0%
Fighter win range
0% – 0%
Simulation Results
Fight Info
Weight ClassLightweight
EngineVEX AI v3.2
RulesetUFC Unified Rules
Fight Length3 Rounds × 5 Min
Simulation DateTale of the Tape
Key Statistics
Skill Profile
Style Matchup
Fighter
Well-Rounded
No glaring holes — dangerous everywhere
Fighter
Well-Rounded
No glaring holes — dangerous everywhere
Two well-roundeds — the cleaner, more durable version usually wins the exchanges.
Style read from career statistics
Significant Strikes
Striking metrics are aggregated from real per-fight statistics and feed the KO/TKO finish hazard in the Vex AI simulation.
Grappling
Grappling metrics are aggregated from real per-fight statistics and feed the submission finish hazard in the Vex AI simulation.
Key Factors
The read
Vex AI favors Select Fighter at 100%. The edges are marginal across the board. The model leans toward a decision.
Fighter's 0% takedown defense keeps it standing.
Expect high volume — Fighter lands 0.0 sig. strikes/min.
Simulation Round Breakdown
| Round | 1 | 2 | 3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fighter Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Fight History
Select Fighter
No recent bouts on record.
Select Fighter
No recent bouts on record.
Vex AI simulations are based on statistical analysis of real, aggregated fight data. Results are a model output for entertainment only — not a guarantee of any outcome and not betting advice. 21+.
Frequently asked questions
There's a free live preview simulation so you can see exactly how Vex AI works. Running your own custom matchups, with any two fighters, your parameters and unlimited runs, is part of a Pro plan, which also unlocks the advanced betting tools.
Vex AI builds a transparent rating from fight statistics, but it doesn't let one number decide the fight. It runs thousands of style-aware Monte-Carlo simulations — round by round, modelling where the fight happens (standing vs ground), fatigue, accumulated damage and finishing paths — to produce a win probability, method-of-victory split and round-by-round breakdown. Every category weight is published.
It's now back-tested against real history, not guessed at. Replaying 10,206 real UFC bouts (1993–2026) — rebuilding each fighter's stats from only their fights before that date, with no hindsight — Vex AI picks the winner about 65% of the time (≈64% on the most recent fights it was never tuned on), with a log-loss of 0.63 versus 0.69 for a coin flip, and well-calibrated probabilities. Predictions are still probabilistic estimates, not guarantees: MMA is high-variance, so every result ships with a confidence range and capped probabilities. A research and entertainment tool, not betting advice.
Real data from trusted public sources: fighter identities, records, rankings and event cards. Per-fight statistics are real where available, and otherwise transparently estimated from a fighter's real record (and flagged as estimates). The Vex AI simulation is the only modelled prediction — nothing is invented or presented as real when it isn't.
FightVex is informational analytics, not betting advice, and we do not accept wagers. Use the odds, value signals and EV/CLV tools to inform your own decisions. 21+.